The American-led sanctions on Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war have had unintended consequences. Instead of isolating Russia, they have pushed it closer to China, accelerating the emergence of a bipolar world order. This evolving strategic alignment between Moscow and Beijing poses new challenges for India, which must now navigate a complex geopolitical landscape.
India’s foreign policy has traditionally been guided by strategic autonomy. However, the deepening Russia-China partnership—driven by shared interests in countering Western dominance—requires India to recalibrate its approach. While India has strong defense ties with Russia, it also shares concerns with the West about China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) projects China to become the world’s largest economy by 2030. This economic rise, coupled with its growing military capabilities and strategic outreach, makes China a formidable global player. Russia, though economically weaker, brings military heft and energy resources to the partnership.
India must balance its relationships with both the West and Russia, while safeguarding its strategic interests. The Quad alliance, comprising India, the US, Japan, and Australia, is a key platform to counterbalance China’s influence. At the same time, India must maintain its historical ties with Russia, especially in defence and energy cooperation.
The emerging bipolarity is not a return to the Cold War. Unlike the rigid blocs of the past, today’s alignments are fluid and transactional. India’s challenge lies in leveraging its position as a swing power – engaging with multiple poles without being tethered to any.
In this shifting global order, India’s diplomatic agility, economic resilience, and strategic foresight will determine its role on the world stage.