A war Pakistan pretends to be winning in Balochistan is already lost

The Jaffar Express, a Pakistani passenger train traveling from Quetta to Peshawar with approximately 400 passengers on board, was hijacked by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) on March 11, 2025. The attackers detonated explosives in tunnels and on the train tracks before opening fire on the train, halting it in a mountainous terrain that was difficult for the Pakistani authorities to access.

One of the most daring and bold attacks in recent times, the BLA’s demand with a 48-hour ultimatum – for the Baloch political prisoners to be released or they would execute hostages – shook the entire world bringing to light the deep and festering wound lingering since the forcible accession of the princely state of Kalat in 1948 with Pakistan.

The BLA’s move was met with a swift military response from Pakistan. A quick evaluation of BLA’s claims of attacks shows that the Jaffar Express attack came after nearly two years of escalation during which it carried out an exhaustive series of operations across Balochistan. The BLA claimed to have carried out attacks almost every week in 2024.

On March 16, 2025, the BLA claimed to have killed 90 Pakistani Army Personnel and destroyed one bus in a Fidayeen attack launched by its Majeed Brigade in Nushki district. Further, Baloch rebels launched 57 attacks in 48 hours between March 15-17, 2025, resulting in 16 people killed and 46 injured.

BLA has admitted that many women have carried out suicide operations. Their participation signifies that the Baloch insurgency has transformed from being a tribal movement to a struggle of the educated and the middle class.

While the collaboration of BLA with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), linked with the Afghan Taliban, has been continuing for some time, their formal alliance came to light on 12 March 2025. Equipped with state-of-the-art weapons, many of which were captured from Afghan security forces by the Afghan Taliban, these insurgents pose a major security challenge for Pakistan. The close connection of ISIS (Khorasan) with some of these groups further compounds the threat across multiple regions in Pakistan.

Speaking at a recent session of the Pakistani National Assembly, Fazl-ur-Rehman, President of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, a leading Pakistani politician and a cleric, who has always supported the Pakistan Army against the Baloch movement yet said that whatever was happening in Balochistan did not portend well for Pakistan’s future. “If districts in Balochistan announce liberation, the UN will accept their independence and Pakistan will fall,” he warned.

The said train hijack highlighted the operational capabilities with effective social media strategies, growing tactical sophistication and increased coordination between multiple groups and sub-groups of the BLA to launch such daring and audacious attacks on Pakistan’s security forces and that they can withstand the firepower of special forces for well over 24 hours.

Balochistan is situated in the southwest of Pakistan. It is Pakistan’s largest province by area, constituting approximately 43.6% of Pakistan’s total landmass. The province is very sparsely populated with approximately 5% of Pakistan’s total population. The province is organized into eight divisions: Kalat, Makran, Nasirabad, Quetta, Sibi, Zhob, Rakhshan, and Loralai. These are further subdivided into 37 districts.

Genesis of the Baloch revolt

The Khan of Kalat declared the independence of Kalat with effect from August 15, 1947. However, despite the Standstill Agreement, on March 27, 1948, Lt Col Gulzar of the 7th Baloch Regiment under General Officer Commanding (GOC), Maj Gen Mohammad Akbar Khan of the Pakistan Army invaded the Khanate of Kalat and escorted the Khan of Kalat to Karachi and forced him to sign the Instrument of Accession. Jinnah accepted the Instrument on March 30, 1948.

The root cause of Baloch alienation

The two legislative chambers of Kalat that were authorized to decide the issue of accession had clearly decided against accession.

Exploitation of natural resources

The province is rich in natural resources such as coal, copper, gold, oil, natural gas, Uranium, Thorium, and many others. The Pakistani military and Punjabi elites have been exploiting and looting the natural resources for their own benefit by intimidation, enforced disappearances, abductions, massacres, and deprivation of basic necessities like water.  The same has resulted in at least 70% of the 15 million inhabitants of Balochistan being marginalized and living below the poverty line.

The Voice for Baloch Missing Persons has reported over 5,000 forced disappearances. Government figures acknowledge 2,700 cases, out of which 468 remain unresolved. To compound such miseries of the local population, massive infrastructure projects, such as the Gwadar Port, as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have resulted in a demographic shift with people migrating to Balochistan from different parts of the country, thereby impacting the interests of the local Baloch population.

The central government continues to dedicate more resources to Punjab because it has 173 seats in the lower house- the national assembly, whilst Balochistan has only 20. Hence low political representation in the national assembly due to sparse population is another contributory factor to lack of development. The low literacy rate of 41% and a high unemployment rate of 9.13% compounded by socio-economic deprivation due to a lack of inclusiveness and equity also intensified Baloch’s resentment.

The Baloch liberation movement

The common thread that runs through the history of Pakistan since its creation is the Baloch frequently breaking out in rebellion against the state starting in 1948-50, followed by 1958–60, 1962–63, and 1973–1977, and the fifth one being the ongoing insurgency till date that began in 2003.

Every rebellion has lasted longer than the previous one; every rebellion has encompassed a wider geographical area than the previous one; and every rebellion has involved more Baloch than the previous one. The feeling among the Baloch that since the creation of Pakistan, Balochistan has been increasingly “colonized” by the ethnically dominant Punjabis who control the central Government of Pakistan.

The insurgent groups

BLA, designated as a terrorist organization by Pakistan, the US, and the UK, is the most widely known Baloch separatist group. Since 2000 it has launched numerous deadly attacks mostly against the Pakistani Army/security forces/ police, journalists, civilians, and educational institutions. There is a visible shift in the composition of armed groups with middle-class and educated youths joining them.

There are various insurgent groups including the BLA, the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), the Baloch Republican Guards (BRG) and the Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) reportedly have now been united under the Baloch National Army (BNA). BLA rebels claim that they are aiming for both freedom from Pakistan and internal reform of Baloch society.

As the demand for autonomy shifts to secession by the BLA, the Pakistan Army killing militants are turning grieving sons and daughters of Balochistan into suicide bombers. Until Islamabad ensures inclusivity, bombs will keep exploding, bodies will keep piling up and the state will keep pretending it’s winning a war it’s already lost. Pakistan must address the political and economic problems that fuel instability and insurgency.

This article was first published on The South Asian Times.

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